Identifying risk factors and detection strategies for adolescent depression in diverse global settings: A Delphi consensus study

Highlights • Global experts ranked biopsychosocial risk factors for adolescent depression • Risk factors include female sex, family history, physical illness, bullying • Mood changes and loss of interest are measurable early signs of adolescent depression • Culture influences the types and specificity of adolescent depression risk factors
Background Adolescence represents a vulnerable period for the onset of depression. Globally, there is a need to better understand risk factors for adolescent depression to inform policies for effective prevention initiatives. Methods A Delphi consensus study was conducted on risk factors, early signs, and detection strategies for adolescent depression in global settings. Over 3 survey rounds, global experts formulated and ranked these variables for (1) specificity for adolescent depression and (2) feasibility of measurement (round 1, n=21 participants; rounds 2 and 3, n=17). We calculated Smith's salience index as a measure of consensus. Interviews were conducted with 10 participants to elicit qualitative reflections on the ranking results, and on the influence of cultural and contextual factors on depression risks. Results Thirty-one risk factors for adolescent depression were generated. Panelists ranked three as highly specific and highly feasible to measure: family history of depression, exposure to bullying, and a negative family environment. Six were ranked as modestly specific and highly feasible: physical illness or disability, female sex, bereavement, trauma exposure, substance abuse, and low self-esteem. An additional 5 items were modestly specific and modestly feasible: social difficulties, academic stress, poverty, loss of family, and cognitive distortions. Five symptoms were at least modestly specific and feasible to measure: mood changes, loss of interest, social isolation, suicidality, and sleep changes. Schools were considered the most feasible place for screening. Limitations The participants were not representative of all countries and cultural regions. Conclusions This study offers a profile of risk factors developed and prioritized by experts to inform a research agenda for risk, identification and prevention of adolescent depression across global settings.