Short communication: Prediction of hyperketonemia in dairy cows in early lactation using on-farm cow data and net energy intake by partial least square discriminant analysis

The objectives of this study were (1) to evaluate if hyperketonemia in dairy cows (defined as plasma β-hydroxybutyrate ≥1.0 mmol/L) can be predicted using on-farm cow data either in current or previous lactation week, and (2) to study if adding individual net energy intake (NEI) can improve the predictive ability of the model. Plasma β-hydroxybutyrate concentration, on-farm cow data (milk yield, percentage of fat, protein and lactose, fat- and protein-corrected milk yield, body weight, body weight change, dry period length, parity, and somatic cell count), and NEI of 424 individual cows were available weekly through lactation wk 1 to 5 postpartum. To predict hyperketonemia in dairy cows, models were first trained by partial least square discriminant analysis, using on-farm cow data in the same or previous lactation week. Second, NEI was included in models to evaluate the improvement of the predictability of the models. Through leave-one trial-out cross-validation, models were evaluated by accuracy (the ratio of the sum of true positive and true negative), sensitivity (68.2% to 84.9%), specificity (61.5% to 98.7%), positive predictive value (57.7% to 98.7%), and negative predictive value (66.2% to 86.1%) to predict hyperketonemia of dairy cows. Through lactation wk 1 to 5, the accuracy to predict hyperketonemia using data in the same week was 64.4% to 85.5% (on-farm cow data only), 66.1% to 87.0% (model including NEI), and using data in the previous week was 58.5% to 82.0% (on-farm cow data only), 59.7% to 85.1% (model including NEI). An improvement of the accuracy of the model due to including NEI ranged among lactation weeks from 1.0% to 4.4% when using data in the same lactation week and 0.2% to 6.6% when using data in the previous lactation week. In conclusion, trained models via partial least square discriminant analysis have potential to predict hyperketonemia in dairy cows not only using data in the current lactation week, but also using data in the previous lactation week. Net energy intake can improve the accuracy of the model, but only to a limited extent. Besides NEI, body weight, body weight change, milk fat, and protein content were important variables to predict hyperketonemia, but their rank of importance differed across lactation weeks.