Widespread decline in winds delayed autumn foliar senescence over high latitudes

Significance Decline in winds over past decades were observed over high northern latitudes (>50°), yet its influence on the date of autumn leaf senescence (DFS) remains unknown. Using ground observations, flux measurements, and remote sensing imagery, here we show that decline in winds significantly extended DFS over high latitudes at a magnitude comparable with the temperature and precipitation effects. We found that decline in winds reduces evapotranspiration, causes fewer damaging effects, and also results in decreased cooling effect. Our results therefore are of great significance for carbon cycle modeling because an improved algorithm based on these findings projected overall widespread earlier DFS by the end of this century, contributing potentially to a positive feedback to climate.
The high northern latitudes (>50°) experienced a pronounced surface stilling (i.e., decline in winds) with climate change. As a drying factor, the influences of changes in winds on the date of autumn foliar senescence (DFS) remain largely unknown and are potentially important as a mechanism explaining the interannual variability of autumn phenology. Using 183,448 phenological observations at 2,405 sites, long-term site-scale water vapor and carbon dioxide flux measurements, and 34 y of satellite greenness data, here we show that the decline in winds is significantly associated with extended DFS and could have a relative importance comparable with temperature and precipitation effects in contributing to the DFS trends. We further demonstrate that decline in winds reduces evapotranspiration, which results in less soil water losses and consequently more favorable growth conditions in late autumn. In addition, declining winds also lead to less leaf abscission damage which could delay leaf senescence and to a decreased cooling effect and therefore less frost damage. Our results are potentially useful for carbon flux modeling because an improved algorithm based on these findings projected overall widespread earlier DFS than currently expected by the end of this century, contributing potentially to a positive feedback to climate.