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Beyond the peak: A deterministic compartment model for exploring the Covid-19 evolution in Italy
- Source :
- PLoS ONE, Vol 15, Iss 11, p e0241951 (2020), PLoS ONE
- Publication Year :
- 2020
-
Abstract
- Novel Covid-19 has had a huge impact on the world’s population since December 2019. The very rapid spreading of the virus worldwide, with its heavy toll of death and overload of the healthcare systems, induced the scientific community to focus on understanding, monitoring and foreseeing the epidemic evolution, weighing up the impact of different containment measures. An immense literature was produced in few months. Many papers were focused on predicting the peak features through a variety of different models. In the present paper, combining the surveillance data-set with data on mobility and testing, we develop a deterministic compartment model aimed at performing a retrospective analysis to understand the main modifications occurred to the characteristic parameters that regulate the epidemic spreading. We find that, besides self-protective behaviors, a reduction of susceptibility should have occurred in order to explain the fast descent of the epidemic after the peak. A sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number, in response to variations of the epidemiological parameters that can be influenced by policy-makers, shows the primary importance of a rigid isolation procedure for the diagnosed cases, combined with an intensive effort in performing extended testing campaigns. Future scenarios depend on the ability to protect the population from the injection of new cases from abroad, and to pursue in applying rigid self-protective measures.
- Subjects :
- European People
Viral Diseases
Epidemiology
Computer science
Geographical locations
Medical Conditions
0302 clinical medicine
Pandemic
Medicine and Health Sciences
Ethnicities
030212 general & internal medicine
Virus Testing
0303 health sciences
education.field_of_study
Multidisciplinary
Viral Epidemiology
Italian People
Variety (cybernetics)
Europe
Infectious Diseases
Italy
Risk analysis (engineering)
Medicine
Disease Susceptibility
Coronavirus Infections
Research Article
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Death Rates
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
Science
Pneumonia, Viral
Population
Microbiology
Viral Evolution
Virus
Betacoronavirus
03 medical and health sciences
epidemic spreading
Population Metrics
Diagnostic Medicine
basic reproduction number
Virology
Humans
European Union
education
Pandemics
Retrospective Studies
030304 developmental biology
Evolutionary Biology
Models, Statistical
Population Biology
SARS-CoV-2
Biology and Life Sciences
COVID-19
Covid 19
compartment model
Organismal Evolution
Medical Risk Factors
Microbial Evolution
People and Places
Population Groupings
Basic reproduction number
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- PLoS ONE, Vol 15, Iss 11, p e0241951 (2020), PLoS ONE
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....67399517f72d8fa641faaab6bed3b73a