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Derivation and Multicenter Validation of the Drug Resistance in Pneumonia Clinical Prediction Score
- Source :
- Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy. 60:2652-2663
- Publication Year :
- 2016
- Publisher :
- American Society for Microbiology, 2016.
-
Abstract
- The health care-associated pneumonia (HCAP) criteria have a limited ability to predict pneumonia caused by drug-resistant bacteria and favor the overutilization of broad-spectrum antibiotics. We aimed to derive and validate a clinical prediction score with an improved ability to predict the risk of pneumonia due to drug-resistant pathogens compared to that of HCAP criteria. A derivation cohort of 200 microbiologically confirmed pneumonia cases in 2011 and 2012 was identified retrospectively. Risk factors for pneumonia due to drug-resistant pathogens were evaluated by logistic regression, and a novel prediction score (the drug resistance in pneumonia [DRIP] score) was derived. The score was then validated in a prospective, observational cohort of 200 microbiologically confirmed cases of pneumonia at four U.S. centers in 2013 and 2014. The DRIP score (area under the receiver operator curve [AUROC], 0.88 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.82 to 0.93]) performed significantly better ( P = 0.02) than the HCAP criteria (AUROC, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.64 to 0.79]). At a threshold of ≥4 points, the DRIP score demonstrated a sensitivity of 0.82 (95% CI, 0.67 to 0.88), a specificity of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.73 to 0.87), a positive predictive value (PPV) of 0.68 (95% CI, 0.56 to 0.78), and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.90 (95% CI, 0.81 to 0.93). By comparison, the performance of HCAP criteria was less favorable: sensitivity was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.67 to 0.88), specificity was 0.65 (95% CI, 0.56 to 0.73), PPV was 0.53 (95% CI, 0.42 to 0.63), and NPV was 0.86 (95% CI, 0.77 to 0.92). The overall accuracy of the HCAP criteria was 69.5% (95% CI, 62.5 to 75.7%), whereas that of the DRIP score was 81.5% (95% CI, 74.2 to 85.6%) ( P = 0.005). Unnecessary extended-spectrum antibiotics were recommended 46% less frequently by applying the DRIP score (25/200, 12.5%) than by use of HCAP criteria (47/200, 23.5%) ( P = 0.004), without increasing the rate at which inadequate treatment recommendations were made. The DRIP score was more predictive of the risk of pneumonia due to drug-resistant pathogens than HCAP criteria and may have the potential to decrease antibiotic overutilization in patients with pneumonia. Validation in larger cohorts of patients with pneumonia due to all causes is necessary.
- Subjects :
- 0301 basic medicine
Pharmacology
medicine.medical_specialty
Receiver operating characteristic
business.industry
030106 microbiology
Retrospective cohort study
Drug resistance
Clinical Therapeutics
Logistic regression
medicine.disease
Confidence interval
03 medical and health sciences
Pneumonia
0302 clinical medicine
Infectious Diseases
Internal medicine
Cohort
medicine
Pharmacology (medical)
030212 general & internal medicine
Intensive care medicine
Prospective cohort study
business
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 10986596 and 00664804
- Volume :
- 60
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....65e6dbd953747ca5533e8718086c6f8c