The devil is in the details: an investigation of the relationships between conflict, food price and climate across Africa

Highlights • Across Africa, conflict increases the price of commodities, which, in turn, increase the rate of political violence. • Climate change has a weak direct effect on political violence rates. • Climate change indirectly affects conflict rates through the effect of increased food prices. • Governments and stable markets play a key role in mitigating the negative effects of climate change. • Studies of how climate change will affect social, economic and political conditions should be conducted on the local level.
This study investigates the relationship between violent conflict, food price, and climate variability at the subnational level. Using disaggregated data on 113 African markets from January 1997 to April 2010, interrelationships between the three variables are analyzed in simultaneous equation models. We find that: (i) a positive feedback exists between food price and violence – higher food prices increase conflict rates within markets and conflict increases food prices; (ii) anomalously dry conditions are associated with increased frequencies of conflict; and (iii) decreased rainfall exerts an indirect effect on conflict through its impact on food prices. These findings suggest that the negative effects of climate variability on conflict can be mitigated by interventions and effective price management in local markets. Creating environments in which food prices are stable and reliable, and markets are accessible and safe, can lower the impacts of both climate change and conflict feedbacks.