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Validation of a population coronary disease predictive system: the CASSANDRA model
- Source :
- Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health. 68:1012-1019
- Publication Year :
- 2014
- Publisher :
- BMJ, 2014.
-
Abstract
- Background The use of validated multivariate cardiovascular predictive models in a population setting is of interest for public health policy makers. We aimed to validate the estimations of the CASSANDRA model (coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence and CHD risk distribution), considering the population changes in age, sex and CHD risk factors prevalence in a 10-year period. Methods We compared the projected CHD incidence estimated with CASSANDRA with that observed in the Girona Heart Registry (REGICOR) for 1995–2004 and 2000–2009 in the population of Girona (Spain) aged 35–74 years. We used official age and sex distributions for this population. Baseline cardiovascular risk factors prevalence and the distribution of cardiovascular risk were obtained from three cross-sectional studies performed in 1995, 2000 and 2005. To validate the future distribution of cardiovascular risk, we tested the yearly CHD risk variance over the study period. Results No significant differences between the estimated and observed annual CHD incidence per 100 000 men were found in 1995–2004 (CASSANDRA=457.8 and REGICOR=420.3, incidence rate ratio (IRR) (95% CI)=0.92 (0.89 to 0.96)) and in 2000–2009 (441.4 and 409.6, respectively, IRR=0.93 (0.90 to 0.96)). However, overpredictions of 18% and 22%, respectively, were observed in women (198.8 and 160.4, IRR=0.82 (0.77 to 0.86), and 197.1 and 152.8, IRR=0.78 (0.74 to 0.83), respectively). No significant differences were found in the CHD risk variance in the three different cross-sectional studies. Conclusions The CASSANDRA model produces valid estimates, particularly in men, of the future burden of disease and in the distribution of cardiovascular risk in individuals aged 35–74 years.
- Subjects :
- Adult
Male
Gerontology
Multivariate statistics
medicine.medical_specialty
Epidemiology
Cross-sectional study
Population
Coronary Disease
Comorbidity
Coronary disease
Rate ratio
Models, Biological
Risk Assessment
Age Distribution
Diabetes Mellitus
Prevalence
Humans
Medicine
Registries
Sex Distribution
education
Aged
education.field_of_study
business.industry
Incidence
Incidence (epidemiology)
Smoking
Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Reproducibility of Results
Middle Aged
Cholesterol
Cross-Sectional Studies
Spain
Hypertension
Female
business
Chd risk
Demography
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 14702738 and 0143005X
- Volume :
- 68
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....6450d0e7ec501299869317ee70333d1d