Cost-effectiveness of using environmental surveillance to target the roll-out typhoid conjugate vaccine

Typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV) has been shown to be costeffective in some settings, but to make the most of limited healthcare funds, the WHO recommends that decisions about when and where to introduce TCV should be based on local evidence of transmission. Further, Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance, recommends that countries request TCV funding based on epidemiological data from within-country. Since few countries have reliable case reporting, we considered environmental surveillance as a decision-support tool for vaccine introduction choices. Environmental surveillance methods are still in development and this analysis assesses its potential as a decision support tool. We combined a disease transmission simulation model with an economic model, to quantify the value of surveillance. The disease transmission model is fit to historical case reporting from Blantyre, Malawi. The economic model takes a social perspective and incorporates the cost of environmental surveillance, vaccination, and both direct and indirect cost of care for acute typhoid cases. We find that the use of time-limited environmental surveillance to differentiate low- from high-endemicity areas is low cost relative to potential savings, especially if it is paired with a locally targeted vaccination campaign. These findings are robust to the uncertainty of cost model parameters and underlying endemicity.