Mapping sea-level change in time, space, and probability

Future sea-level rise generates hazards for coastal populations, economies, infrastructure, and ecosystems around the world. The projection of future sea-level rise relies on an accurate understanding of the mechanisms driving its complex spatio-temporal evolution, which must be founded on an understanding of its history. We review the current methodologies and data sources used to reconstruct the history of sea-level change over geological (Pliocene, Last Interglacial, and Holocene) and instrumental (tide-gauge and satellite alimetry) eras, and the tools used to project the future spatial and temporal evolution of sea level. We summarize the understanding of the future evolution of sea level over the near (through 2050), medium (2100), and long (post-2100) terms. Using case studies from Singapore and New Jersey, we illustrate the ways in which current methodologies and data sources can constrain future projections, and how accurate projections can motivate the development of new sea-level research questions across relevant timescales. Ministry of Education (MOE) National Research Foundation (NRF) The authors acknowledge funding from Singapore Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund Tier 1 RG119/17, the National Research Foundation Singapore, and the Singapore Ministry of Education, under the Research Centres of Excellence initiative; US National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Grant NA11OAR4310101; US National Science Foundation (NSF) Grants ICER-1663807, OCE 1458904 and 1702587, EAR 1520683, and Postdoctoral Fellowship 1625150; National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Grant 80NSSC17K0698; the Community Foundation of New Jersey; and David and Arleen McGlade. This article is a contribution to PALSEA2 (Palaeo-Constraints on Sea-Level Rise), International Geoscience Program (IGCP) Project 639, “Sea Level Change from Minutes to Millennia,” and INQUA Project 1601P “Geographic variability of HOLocene relative SEA level (HOLSEA).” This work is Earth Observatory of Singapore contribution no. 198.