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Synergistic impacts of global warming and thermohaline circulation collapse on amphibians

Authors :
Francisco Estrada
Julián A. Velasco
Carolina Ureta
Didier Swingedouw
Dimitri Defrance
Oscar Calderón-Bustamante
Environmental Economics
Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques (EPOC)
Observatoire aquitain des sciences de l'univers (OASU)
Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)
Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
UMR 228 Espace-Dev, Espace pour le développement
Université de Guyane (UG)-Université des Antilles (UA)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université de Montpellier (UM)
The Climate Data Factory
Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE)
Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Université de Guyane (UG)-Université des Antilles (UA)
the Climate Data Factory
Source :
Communications Biology, Communications biology, 4(1):141, 1-7. Nature Research, Communications Biology, Nature Publishing Group, 2021, 4, ⟨10.1038/s42003-021-01665-6⟩, Velasco, J A, Estrada, F, Calderón-Bustamante, O, Swingedouw, D, Ureta, C, Gay, C & Defrance, D 2021, ' Synergistic impacts of global warming and thermohaline circulation collapse on amphibians ', Communications biology, vol. 4, no. 1, 141, pp. 1-7 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-021-01665-6, Communications Biology, 2021, 4, ⟨10.1038/s42003-021-01665-6⟩, Communications Biology, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 1-7 (2021)
Publication Year :
2021
Publisher :
Nature Publishing Group UK, 2021.

Abstract

Impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity are a prominent area of research in climate change. However, little is known about the effects of abrupt climate change and climate catastrophes on them. The probability of occurrence of such events is largely unknown but the associated risks could be large enough to influence global climate policy. Amphibians are indicators of ecosystems’ health and particularly sensitive to novel climate conditions. Using state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we present a global assessment of the effects of unabated global warming and a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the distribution of 2509 amphibian species across six biogeographical realms and extinction risk categories. Global warming impacts are severe and strongly enhanced by additional and substantial AMOC weakening, showing tipping point behavior for many amphibian species. Further declines in climatically suitable areas are projected across multiple clades, and biogeographical regions. Species loss in regional assemblages is extensive across regions, with Neotropical, Nearctic and Palearctic regions being most affected. Results underline the need to expand existing knowledge about the consequences of climate catastrophes on human and natural systems to properly assess the risks of unabated warming and the benefits of active mitigation strategies.<br />Julián Velasco et al. use climate model simulations to show how the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and unabated global warming under the RCP 8.5 scenario affect the global distribution of 2509 amphibian species. These results show severe and synergistic impacts of global warming, with particularly strong effects shown in the Neotropical, Nearctic and Palearctic regions.

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
23993642
Volume :
4
Database :
OpenAIRE
Journal :
Communications Biology
Accession number :
edsair.doi.dedup.....59dcab8b46ac6f542bf3a35899628320
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-021-01665-6⟩