Analysis of alternative personal income tax models - effects of application in Serbia

Porez na dohodak graĎana je jedan od poreskih oblika kod kojeg, kako u ekonomskoj teoriji, tako i u praksi, postoji veliki broj otvorenih pitanja, zbog izraţenog trade-off odnosa izmeĎu pravičnosti i efikasnosti. Stoga ne postoji uniformno, najbolje rešenje, već se ocena performansi poreza na dohodak vrši na osnovu definisanih ciljeva oporezivanja i odgovarajućih kriterijuma koji iz tih ciljeva proizilaze, polazeći od vaţećih teorijskih stavova i društvenih preferencija. Tako u savremenoj ekonomskoj teoriji postoji saglasnost da bi ovaj poreski oblik trebalo da bude horizontalno pravičan, da implicira niske troškove primene i umereno poresko opterećenje, jer je ocenjeno da ovaj porez, više nego većina drugih poreza, negativno utiče na ekonomsku efikasnost i dugoročan privredni rast. Često se takoĎe navodi da bi ovaj poreski oblik trebalo da bude i vertikalno pravičan (progresivan), što predstavlja legitiman cilj, ali koji proizilazi iz ličnih vrednosnih sudova, tako da oko njega ne postoji saglasnost. Postojeći sistem poreza na dohodak u Srbiji ne obezbeĎuje zadovoljavajući nivo horizontalne (ni vertikalne) pravičnosti u oporezivanju, alokativno je pristrasan, i relativno sloţen, što izaziva relativno visoke troškove administriranja i primene, zbog čega je njegova reforma neophodna. S obzirom da je reč o porezu koji u velikoj meri moţe uticati na ponašanje ekonomskih agenata, pri čemu ti ekonomski efekti zavise kako od parametrizacije poreza, tako i od strukturnih karakteristika svake zemlje (nivo i struktura dohodaka, nivo poreskog morala, preferencije društva i sl.) za utemeljeno ocenjivanje različitih rešenja neophodno je izvršiti empirijsku analizu osnovnih ekonomskih efekata, na podacima koji se odnose na konkretnu zemlju. Cilj ovog rada je da pruţi pregled relevantnih klasičnih i savremenih teorijskih stavova u vezi sa oporezivanjem dohotka graĎana, da na osnovu analiza iskustava drugih zemalja uputi na opšte zaključke u pogledu ekonomskih performansi alternativnih modela poreza na dohodak, i da na osnovu mikro i makroekonomskih podataka za Srbiju bude izvršena empirijska ocena i analiza osnovnih ekonomskih efekata koji bi u Srbiji bili ostvareni u slučaju primene svakog od razmatranih modela oporezivanja dohotka. In economic theory and practice there are many open questions related to design of personal income tax – probably more than in case of other taxes, due to equity-efficiency trade-off, which is highly related to this tax. Therefore, there is no uniform, single best solution, since the performances of each income tax model are dependent on the defined goals of taxation and respective criteria, which arise from the theory and social preferences. There is a consensus in contemporary economic theory on the need to provide horizontal equity in taxation of personal income, as well as modest administration and compliance costs and low tax burden, since there is empirical evidence that this tax distorts economic efficiency and long term economic growth, more than the most of other taxes. It is often argued that income tax should be vertically equitable (progressive), which is legitimate goal, but stemming from personal judgements, which is why there is no common agreement on this goal. Current personal income tax in Serbia is not horizontally (nor vertically) equitable, neither allocative neutral and rather complex, triggering relatively high administration and compliance costs, which is why its reform is necessary. Since this tax may have large influence on behavior of economic agents, the economic effects being dependent on its parameterization and structural features of each particular country (level and structure of income, tax moral, social preferences, etc.), in order to provide evidence based assessment of different income tax models, it is necessary to perform empirical estimate and analysis of main economic effects, based on the data related to that country. The aim of this paper is to provide insight into relevant classical and contemporary theory of income taxation, to make general conclusions on features of alternative income tax schemes based on the analysis of experience of other countries and to make empirical estimate and analysis of economic effects which would arise in Serbia in case of introduction of each of the alternative income tax models, based on relevant micro and macroeconomic data. In that respect, three revenue neutral income tax reform scenarios for Serbia have been drafted – flat, dual and comprehensive. Each of the reform scenarios is based on respective pure theoretical model.