Quantifying responses to changes in the jurisdiction of a congestion charge: A study of the London western extension

This paper quantifies behavioural responses to changes in the jurisdiction of a congestion charge, with a successive focus on (i) an extension and (ii) a reduction in the size of the charging zone. We exploit the unanticipated nature of both the implementation and removal of London’s Western Expansion Zone (WEZ) as quasi-natural experiments to test whether individual responses to policies are asymmetric. We use the UK Department of Transport Annual Average Daily Flow (AADF) data, which records traffic flows for seven transport modes (including cars, buses, bicycles, heavy and light goods vehicles). Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that the introduction of the WEZ led to a 4.9% decline in road traffic flows in the new congestion charge area. These results are robust to different model specifications. HGVs traffic did not significantly change post-WEZ, which indicates that their road demand is price inelastic. The removal of the WEZ led to no significant variations in traffic. This result indicates asymmetry in behaviour with persistent changes in post-intervention traffic demand levels.