Long term variability of the annual hydrological regime and sensitivity to temperature phase shifts in Saxony/Germany

The timing of the seasons strongly effects ecosystems and human activities. Recently, there is increasing evidence of changes in the timing of the seasons, such as earlier spring seasons detected in phenological records, advanced seasonal timing of surface temperature, earlier snow melt or streamflow timing. For water resources management there is a need to quantitatively describe the variability in the timing of hydrological regimes and to understand how climatic changes control the seasonal water budget of river basins on the regional scale. In this study, changes of the annual cycle of hydrological variables are analysed for 27 river basins in Saxony/Germany. Thereby monthly series of basin runoff ratios, the ratio of runoff and basin precipitation are investigated for changes and variability of their annual periodicity over the period 1930–2009. Approximating the annual cycle by the means of harmonic functions gave acceptable results, while only two parameters, phase and amplitude, are required. It has been found that the annual phase of runoff ratio, representing the timing of the hydrological regime, is subject to considerable year-to-year variability, being concurrent with basins in similar hydro-climatic conditions. Two distinct basin classes have been identified, whereby basin elevation has been found to be the delimiting factor. An increasing importance of snow on the basin water balance with elevation is apparent and mainly governs the temporal variability of the annual timing of hydrological regimes. Further there is evidence of coincident changes in trend direction (change points in 1971 and 1988) in snow melt influenced basins. In these basins the timing of the runoff ratio is significantly correlated with the timing of temperature, and effects on runoff by temperature phase changes are even amplified. Interestingly, temperature effects may explain the low frequent variability of the second change point until today. However, the first change point can not be explained by temperature alone and other causes have to be considered.