Multidecadal, county-level analysis of the effects of land use, Bt cotton, and weather on cotton pests in China

Significance Changes in land use, climate, and agricultural technologies affect pest severity and management. We analyzed long-term longitudinal data (1991–2015) on three major cotton pests for 51 Chinese counties. Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) insect-resistant cotton had pervasive effects on the whole pest complex and its management. Adoption resulted in major reductions in insecticide use against bollworm. The resulting restoration of aphid biocontrol decreased aphid severity. Mirid bug severity increased, aided by higher May temperatures and reduced insecticide sprays against bollworm. Landscape effects on pest severity varied between species. Farmers sprayed at nondamaging infestation levels. Findings support Bt-based plant resistance as a component of integrated pest management (IPM) but highlight the potential for unintended outcomes for the whole pest complex and the importance of climate change.
Long-term changes in land use, climate, and agricultural technologies may affect pest severity and management. The influences of these major drivers can only be identified by analyzing long-term data. This study examines panel data on land use, adoption of genetically modified Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) insect-resistant cotton, weather, pest severity, and insecticide use on three major cotton pests for 51 counties in China during 1991–2015. Bt cotton had pervasive effects on the whole pest complex in cotton and its management. Adoption resulted in major reductions in insecticide use for bollworm control. The resulting restoration of aphid biological control decreased aphid severity. However, mirid bugs, which have few effective natural enemies in cotton, increased in severity with warming May and reduced insecticide spraying against bollworm. The effects of landscape on pest severity were pest specific. The severity of cotton aphid and mirid bugs decreased with higher land use diversity, but the severity of highly polyphagous cotton bollworm was unrelated to land use diversity. Shares of forest, water body, and unused land area were negatively associated with the severity of mirid bugs, whereas cotton bollworm responded positively to the shares of water body and unused land area. Farmers sprayed insecticides at mild infestation levels and responded aggressively to severe bollworm outbreaks. Findings support the usefulness of Bt-based plant resistance as a component of integrated pest management (IPM) but highlight the potential for unexpected outcomes resulting from agro-ecosystem feedback loops as well as the importance of climate.