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Influencing Factors Evaluation of Machine Learning-Based Energy Consumption Prediction
- Source :
- Energies, Vol 14, Iss 7167, p 7167 (2021), Energies; Volume 14; Issue 21; Pages: 7167
- Publication Year :
- 2021
- Publisher :
- MDPI AG, 2021.
-
Abstract
- Modern computing resources, including machine learning-based techniques, are used to maintain stability between the demand and supply of electricity. Machine learning is widely used for the prediction of energy consumption. The researchers present several artificial intelligence and machine learning-based methods to improve the prediction accuracy of energy consumption. However, the discrepancy between actual energy consumption and predicted energy consumption is still challenging. Various factors, including changes in weather, holidays, and weekends, affect prediction accuracy. This article analyses the overall prediction using error curve learning and a hybrid model. Actual energy consumption data of Jeju island, South Korea, has been used for experimental purposes. We have used a hybrid ML model consisting of Catboost, Xgboost, and Multi-layer perceptron for the prediction. Then we analyze the factors that affect the week-ahead (WA) and 48 h prediction results. Mean error on weekdays is recorded as 2.78%, for weekends 2.79%, and for special days it is recorded as 4.28%. We took into consideration significant predicting errors and looked into the reasons behind those errors. Furthermore, we analyzed whether factors, such as a sudden change in temperature and typhoons, had an effect on energy consumption. Finally, the authors have considered the other factors, such as public holidays and weekends, to analyze the significant errors in the prediction. This study can be helpful for policymakers to make policies according to the error-causing factors.
- Subjects :
- Technology
Control and Optimization
Mean squared error
Computer science
Stability (learning theory)
hybrid model
Energy Engineering and Power Technology
energy prediction
Machine learning
computer.software_genre
error curve learning
Supply and demand
energy consumption
Electrical and Electronic Engineering
Engineering (miscellaneous)
Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
business.industry
Energy consumption
Perceptron
machine learning
Artificial intelligence
Electricity
business
computer
Hybrid model
Energy (miscellaneous)
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 19961073
- Volume :
- 14
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Energies
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....52cbb3917d0bcabe2d7ecdf3fbd3a48b
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.3390/en14217167