Developing guidance to communicate global aftershock forecasts

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is responsible for public aftershock forecasts following US earthquakes. An automated system produces forecasts for most M5+ earthquakes. While this system is not operational for earthquakes outside the US, the USGS has received requests for forecasts following damaging earthquakes worldwide, particularly those with a high number of fatalities (orange or red level on the PAGER scale). However, aftershock forecasting globally has the inherent challenge of communication across different languages and cultures. Further, aftershock forecasts made from outside the affected region can be a challenge for local science communicators because they may need to respond to questions about a forecast that they may not be familiar with themselves. Effective communication of aftershock forecasts for earthquakes across the world requires developing products that can serve non-English-speakers, and providing local science communicators with tools to help them respond to questions about the forecasts. To support the communication of aftershock forecasts globally, the USGS is developing additional public tools for local science communicators. A communication guide will accompany the forecast template and will be translated into multiple languages. To develop this communication guide, we are facilitating meetings with science communicators in different countries to solicit feedback on its components. Additionally information regarding protective action will be updated. The USGS currently recommends “Drop, Cover, and Hold On”, which may not be appropriate in countries with poorly constructed buildings. By developing additional communication tools, aftershock forecasting will be more effective and accessible to reduce seismic risk worldwide.
The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023)