Circulating Tumor DNA and Late Recurrence in High-Risk Hormone Receptor-Positive, Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2-Negative Breast Cancer

PURPOSE To examine the prevalence and dynamics of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) and its association with metastatic recurrence in patients with high-risk early-stage hormone receptor–positive breast cancer (HR+ BC) more than 5 years from diagnosis. METHODS We enrolled 103 patients with high-risk stage II-III HR+ BC diagnosed more than 5 years prior without clinical evidence of recurrence. We performed whole-exome sequencing (WES) on primary tumor tissue to identify somatic mutations tracked via a personalized, tumor-informed ctDNA test to detect minimal residual disease (MRD). We collected plasma at the time of consent and at routine visits every 6-12 months. Patients were followed for clinical recurrence. RESULTS In total, 85 of 103 patients had sufficient tumor tissue; of them, 83 of 85 (97.6%) patients had successful whole-exome sequencing. Personalized ctDNA assays were designed targeting a median of 36 variants to test 219 plasma samples. The median time from diagnosis to first sample was 8.4 years. The median follow-up was 10.4 years from diagnosis and 2.0 years from first sample. The median number of plasma samples per patient was two. Eight patients (10%) had positive MRD testing at any time point. Six patients (7.2%) developed distant metastatic recurrence, all of whom were MRD-positive before overt clinical recurrence, with median ctDNA lead time of 12.4 months. MRD was not identified in one patient (1.2%) with local recurrence. Two of eight MRD-positive patients had not had clinical recurrence at last follow-up. CONCLUSION In this prospective study, in patients with high-risk HR+ BC in the late adjuvant setting, ctDNA was identified a median of 1 year before all cases of distant metastasis. Future studies will determine if ctDNA-guided intervention in patients with HR+ BC can alter clinical outcomes.