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Diabetes free life expectancy and years of life lost associated with type 2 diabetes: projected trends in Germany between 2015 and 2040
- Source :
- Population Health Metrics, Vol 19, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2021), Population Health Metrics
- Publication Year :
- 2021
- Publisher :
- Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2021.
-
Abstract
- Background Type 2 diabetes (T2D) causes substantial disease burden and is projected to affect an increasing number of people in coming decades. This study provides projected estimates of life years free of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and years of life lost ($${\mathrm{YLL}}$$ YLL ) associated with T2D for Germany in the years 2015 and 2040. Methods Based on an illness-death model and the associated mathematical relation between prevalence, incidence and mortality, we projected the prevalence of diagnosed T2D using currently available data on the incidence rate of diagnosed T2D and mortality rates of people with and without diagnosed T2D. Projection of prevalence was achieved by integration of a partial differential equation, which governs the illness-death model. These projected parameters were used as input values to calculate life years free of T2D and $${\mathrm{YLL}}$$ YLL associated with T2D for the German population aged 40 to 100 years in the years 2015 and 2040, while accounting for different assumptions on future trends in T2D incidence and mortality. Results Assuming a constant incidence rate, women and men at age 40 years in 2015 will live approximately 38 years and 33 years free of T2D, respectively. Up to the year 2040, these numbers are projected to increase by 1.0 years and 1.3 years. Assuming a decrease in T2D-associated excess mortality of 2% per year, women and men aged 40 years with T2D in 2015 will be expected to lose 1.6 and 2.7 years of life, respectively, compared to a same aged person without T2D. In 2040, these numbers would reduce by approximately 0.9 years and 1.6 years. This translates to 10.8 million and 6.4 million $${\mathrm{YLL}}$$ YLL in the German population aged 40–100 years with prevalent T2D in 2015 and 2040, respectively. Conclusions Given expected trends in mortality and no increase in T2D incidence, the burden due to premature mortality associated with T2D will decrease on the individual as well as on the population level. In addition, the expected lifetime without T2D is likely to increase. However, these trends strongly depend on future improvements of excess mortality associated with T2D and future incidence of T2D, which should motivate increased efforts of primary and tertiary prevention.
- Subjects :
- Adult
Male
endocrine system
medicine.medical_specialty
endocrine system diseases
Epidemiology
Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics
R858-859.7
Healthy Life Years
Healthy life years
Life Expectancy
Mathematical model
Humans
Medicine
ddc:610
Projection
Illness-death model
Disease burden
Mortality, Premature
business.industry
Research
Incidence
Incidence (epidemiology)
Mortality rate
Burden of disease
Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
nutritional and metabolic diseases
Type 2 diabetes
Projection (relational algebra)
Years of potential life lost
Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2
Life expectancy
Female
Public aspects of medicine
RA1-1270
610 Medizin und Gesundheit
business
human activities
Years of life lost
Forecasting
Demography
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 14787954
- Volume :
- 19
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Population Health Metrics
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....4f780f4d7ab63a3b97f1a6502a29478f