Risk factors for vertebral compression fracture after spine stereotactic body radiation therapy: Long-term results of a prospective phase 2 study

Purpose To identify frequency, clinical relevance and risk factors for vertebral compression fracture (VCF) after spine stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) with long-term follow up (FU). Methods From 2012 to 2015, 61 lesions (56 patients) were treated within a prospective multicenter phase 2 study (NCT01594892) of SBRT for painful vertebral metastases. Post-SBRT VCF were identified. Anatomical segments, normal and tumor tissue of treated vertebrae were segmented for volumetric analyses. Predictive factors for VCF were identified by logistic regression. Results Median clinical and radiological FU for all patients was 16.2 months (range, 0–68.2) and 7.8 months (range, 0–66.9), respectively. Local metastasis control was observed in 82% of lesions at last imaging FU. Post-SBRT VCF occurred in 21 lesions (34.4%): 16.4% showed a progressive VCF, while a new VCF occurred in 18.0%. 3/56 (5.4%) patients developed painful VCF defined as pain increase by ≥2 on the visual analogue scale (VAS) and 2 (3.6%) patients required surgical stabilization. Pre-SBRT VCF, localization in the thoracic spine, Bilsky score >0, SINS score, pre-SBRT osteolytic volume and metastatic vertebral body (VB) involvement were predictive factors for VCF on univariate analysis. Relative VB involvement, osteolytic volume and pre-SBRT VCF remained in the multivariate logistic regression model that had AUC = 0.930, 83.3% sensitivity and 96.6% specificity. Conclusion Spine SBRT resulted in favorable long-term pain and local metastasis control. Despite post-SBRT VCF being observed after one third of treatments, this was symptomatic in only 5% of patients. Predictive factors for developing VCF were identified which could contribute to better selection of patients for spine SBRT.