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Current levels of gonorrhoea screening in MSM in Belgium may have little effect on prevalence : a modelling study
- Source :
- Epidemiology and infection, Epidemiol Infect
- Publication Year :
- 2018
-
Abstract
- There is considerable uncertainty as to the effectiveness of Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) screening in men who have sex with men. It is important to ensure that screening has benefits that outweigh the risks of increased antibiotics resistance. We develop a mathematical model to estimate the effectiveness of screening on prevalence. Separable Temporal Exponential family Random Graph Models are used to model the sexual relationships network, both with main and casual partners. Next, the transmission of Gonorrhoea is simulated on this network. The models are implemented using the R package ‘statnet’, which we adapted among other things to incorporate infection status at the pharynx, urethra and rectum separately and to distinguish between anal sex, oral sex and rimming. The different screening programmes compared are no screening, 3.5% of the population screened, 32% screened and 50% screened. The model simulates day-by-day evolution for 10 years of a population of 10 000. If half of the population would be screened, the prevalence in the pharynx decreases from 11.9% to 10.2%. We conclude that the limited impact of screening on NG prevalence may not outweigh the increased risk of antibiotic resistance.
- Subjects :
- Male
medicine.medical_specialty
Epidemiology
media_common.quotation_subject
Sexual Behavior
Norwegian
German
03 medical and health sciences
Gonorrhea
0302 clinical medicine
Belgium
Urethra
Political science
medicine
Prevalence
Humans
Mass Screening
030212 general & internal medicine
Homosexuality, Male
Sida
Socioeconomics
media_common
030505 public health
biology
Public health
Rectum
Robert koch institute
Models, Theoretical
biology.organism_classification
Original Papers
language.human_language
Neisseria gonorrhoeae
Infectious Diseases
language
Pharynx
Christian ministry
Human medicine
0305 other medical science
Welfare
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 09502688
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Epidemiology and infection
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....4d6d140c12e2b22f4adc7ed60bf71d0f