Trajectories of craving during medication-assisted treatment for opioid-use disorder: Subtyping for early identification of higher risk

AIMS: To examine evidence for subtypes of opioid craving trajectories during medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD), and to (a) test whether these subtypes differed on MOUD-related outcomes, and (b) determine whether nonresponders could be identified before treatment initiation. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Outpatients (n = 211) being treated with buprenorphine or methadone for up to 16 weeks. Growth mixture modeling was used to identify unobserved craving-trajectory subtypes. Support Vector Machines (SVM) were trained to predict subtype membership from pretreatment data. MEASUREMENTS: Self-reported opioid craving (Ecological Momentary Assessment – EMA – three random moments per day). Participant-initiated EMA reports of drug use or higher-than-usual stress. Addiction Severity Index (ASI) pretreatment. FINDINGS: Four craving trajectories were identified: Low (73%); High and Increasing (HIC) (10.9%); Increasing and Decreasing (8.5%); and Rapidly Declining (7.6%). The HIC subgroup reported the highest use of heroin, any opiate, and cannabis during treatment. The Low Craving subgroup reported the lowest use of heroin or any opiate use, and the lowest levels of stress and drug-cue exposure during treatment. SVM models predicting HIC membership before treatment initiation had a sensitivity of 0.70, specificity of 0.78, and accuracy of 0.77. Including 3 weeks of EMA reports increased sensitivity to 0.78, specificity to 0.84, and accuracy to 0.85. CONCLUSIONS: Subgroups of MOUD patients show distinct patterns of opioid craving during treatment. Subgroups differ on critical outcomes including drug-use lapse, stress, and exposure to drug cues. Data from enrollment and early in treatment may help focus clinical attention.