Stochastic method for prediction of subsidence due to the underground coal mining integrated with GIS, a case study in Serbia

The problem of subsidence and damages on buildings above mining works is an inevitable consequence of underground coal mining in large mining basins. Significant development of various methods for prediction of the displacement parameters of the undermined terrain took place in the period from the middle of the last to the beginning of this century. In this paper, a new mathematical model of the stochastic Pataric-Stojanovic method for the predictive subsidence calculation is developed. A case study, as an example for the practical application of the proposed stochastic method, is given for the underground coal mine “Rembas”- Resavica, Serbia. An original MITSOUKO program package, supported by spatial analyses in the Geographic Information System (GIS), was developed for the predictive subsidence calculation based on the stochastic method proposed by the authors Pataric and Stojanovic. The comparative analysis of predicted and measured subsidence values confirms the possibility of using this stochastic method for predictive subsidence calculation in practice, which is a necessity of modern mining.