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Predictive model for bacterial late-onset neonatal sepsis in a tertiary care hospital in Thailand
- Source :
- BMC Infectious Diseases, BMC Infectious Diseases, Vol 20, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2020)
- Publication Year :
- 2019
-
Abstract
- BackgroundEarly diagnosis of neonatal sepsis is essential to prevent severe complications and avoid unnecessary use of antibiotics. The mortality of neonatal sepsis is over 18%in many countries. This study aimed to develop a predictive model for the diagnosis of bacterial late-onset neonatal sepsis.MethodsA case-control study was conducted at Queen Sirikit National Institute of Child Health, Bangkok, Thailand. Data were derived from the medical records of 52 sepsis cases and 156 non-sepsis controls. Only proven bacterial neonatal sepsis cases were included in the sepsis group. The non-sepsis group consisted of neonates without any infection. Potential predictors consisted of risk factors, clinical conditions, laboratory data, and treatment modalities. The model was developed based on multiple logistic regression analysis.ResultsThe incidence of late proven neonatal sepsis was 1.46%. The model had 6 significant variables: poor feeding, abnormal heart rate (outside the range 100–180 x/min), abnormal temperature (outside the range 36o-37.9 °C), abnormal oxygen saturation, abnormal leucocytes (according to Manroe’s criteria by age), and abnormal pH (outside the range 7.27–7.45). The area below the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve was 95.5%. The score had a sensitivity of 88.5% and specificity of 90.4%.ConclusionA predictive model and a scoring system were developed for proven bacterial late-onset neonatal sepsis. This simpler tool is expected to somewhat replace microbiological culture, especially in resource-limited settings.
- Subjects :
- Male
medicine.medical_specialty
Scoring system
Microbiological culture
Bacterial late-onset neonatal sepsis
Models, Biological
Sensitivity and Specificity
lcsh:Infectious and parasitic diseases
Sepsis
Tertiary Care Centers
03 medical and health sciences
0302 clinical medicine
Medical microbiology
Heart Rate
Risk Factors
030225 pediatrics
Internal medicine
medicine
Humans
lcsh:RC109-216
030212 general & internal medicine
Neonatal sepsis
Receiver operating characteristic
business.industry
Incidence (epidemiology)
Medical record
Incidence
Infant, Newborn
medicine.disease
Thailand
Poor Feeding
Anti-Bacterial Agents
Infectious Diseases
ROC Curve
Predictive model
Case-Control Studies
Female
Neonatal Sepsis
business
Research Article
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 14712334
- Volume :
- 20
- Issue :
- 1
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- BMC infectious diseases
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....48c2665d2b45b94ae4d4d96ff6ac8a7c