Uncertainties in the path to 2030

Background Although Ethiopia was applauded for achieving the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) target of reducing child mortality, whether the gains sustained beyond the MDG era was rarely studied. In this study, we reported the trends and determinants of under-five mortality (U5M) from 2015 to 2020 in a population based cohort under the Kersa Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), eastern Ethiopia. Methods We followed pregnant women and their pregnancy outcomes from 2015 to 2020. Each year, data related to death and live births among the follow up population was retrieved. Automated verbal autopsy (InterVA-4) was used to assign the cause of death and Stata 14 was used for analysis. U5M rate was calculated as death among under five children divided by all live births during the study period and described per 1000 live births along with 95% Confidence Interval (CI). A multivariable Cox proportional regression model was used to identify determinant of U5M using adjusted hazard ratio (AHR). Finally, P value