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National age and co-residence patterns shape covid-19 vulnerability

Authors :
Diederik Boertien
James W. Vaupel
Albert Esteve
Iñaki Permanyer
Publication Year :
2020
Publisher :
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, 2020.

Abstract

Based on harmonized census data from 81 countries, we estimate how age and co-residence patterns shape the vulnerability of countries' populations to outbreaks of covid-19. We estimate variation in deaths arising due to a simulated random infection of 10% of the population living in private households and subsequent within-household transmission of the virus. The age-structures of European and North American countries increase their vulnerability to covid-related deaths in general. The co-residence patterns of elderly persons in Africa and parts of Asia increase these countries' vulnerability to deaths induced by within-household transmission of covid-19. Southern European countries, which have aged populations and relatively high levels of intergenerational co-residence are, all else equal, the most vulnerable to outbreaks of covid-19. In a second step, we estimate to what extent avoiding primary infections for specific age-groups would prevent subsequent deaths due to within-household transmission of the virus. Preventing primary infections among the elderly is the most effective in countries with small households and little intergenerational co-residence such as France, whereas confining younger age groups can have a greater impact in countries with large and inter-generational households such as Bangladesh.

Details

Language :
English
Database :
OpenAIRE
Accession number :
edsair.doi.dedup.....48971e6497641483215bcd3515f3bd3e
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.13.20100289