A Proposed Grading Scale for Predicting Outcomes After Stereotactic Radiosurgery for Dural Arteriovenous Fistulas

Background There are presently no grading scales that specifically address the outcomes of cranial dural arteriovenous fistula (dAVF) after stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS). Objective To design a practical grading system that would predict outcomes after SRS for cranial dAVFs. Methods From the International Radiosurgery Research Foundation (University of Pittsburgh [41 patients], University of Pennsylvania [6 patients], University of Sherbrooke [2 patients], University of Manitoba [1 patient], West Virginia University [2 patients], University of Puerto Rico [1 patient], Beaumont Health System 1 [patient], Na Homolce Hospital [13 patients], the University of Virginia [48 patients], and Yale University [6 patients]) centers, 120 patients with dAVF treated with SRS were included in the study. The factors predicting favorable outcome (obliteration without post-SRS hemorrhage) after SRS were assessed using logistic regression analysis. These factors were pooled with the factors that were found to be predictive of obliteration from 7 studies with 736 patients after a systematic review of literature. These were entered into stepwise multiple regression and the best-fit model was identified. Results Based on the predictive model, 3 factors emerged to develop an SRS scoring system: cortical venous reflux (CVR), prior intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and noncavernous sinus location. Class I (score of 0-1 points) predicted the best favorable outcome of 80%. Class II patients (2 points score) had an intermediate favorable outcome of 57%, and class III (score 3 points) had the least favorable outcome at 37%. The ROC analysis showed better predictability to prevailing grading systems (AUC = 0.69; P = .04). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed statistically significant difference between the 3 subclasses of the proposed grading system for post-SRS dAVF obliteration (P = .001). Conclusion The proposed dAVF grading system incorporates angiographic, anatomic, and clinical parameters and improves the prediction of the outcomes following SRS for dAVF as compared to the existing scoring systems.