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Using quantitative dynamic adaptive policy pathways to manage climate change-induced coastal erosion
- Source :
- Climate Risk Management 2021, 33, 100342, UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabria, Universidad de Cantabria (UC), Climate Risk Management, Vol 33, Iss, Pp 100342-(2021)
- Publication Year :
- 2021
- Publisher :
- Elsevier, 2021.
-
Abstract
- Adaptation requires planning strategies that consider the combined effect of climatic and non-climatic drivers, which are deeply uncertain. This uncertainty arises from many sources, cascades and accumulates in risk estimates. A prominent trend to incorporate this uncertainty in adaptation planning is through adaptive approaches such as the dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP). We present a quantitative DAPP application for coastal erosion management to increase its utilisation in this field. We adopt an approach in which adaptation objectives and actions have continuous quantitative metrics that evolve over time as conditions change. The approach hinges on an adaptation information system that comprises hazard and impact modelling and systematic monitoring to assess changing risks and adaptation signals in the light of adaptation pathway choices. Using an elaborated case study, we force a shoreline evolution model with waves and storm surges generated by means of stochastic modelling from 2010 to 2100, considering uncertainty in extreme weather events, climate variability and mean sea-level rise. We produce a new type of adaptation pathways map showing a set of 90-year probabilistic trajectories that link changing objectives (e.g., no adaptation, limit risk increase, avoid risk increase) and nourishment placement over time. This DAPP approach could be applied to other domains of climate change adaptation bringing a new perspective in adaptive planning under deep uncertainty. Alexandra Toimil acknowledges the financial support from the FENIX Project funded by the Government of Cantabria. This research was also funded by the Spanish Government through the grant RISKCOADAPT (BIA2017-89401-R).
- Subjects :
- Atmospheric Science
Global and Planetary Change
Computer science
Stochastic modelling
business.industry
Geography, Planning and Development
Environmental resource management
Probabilistic logic
Uncertainty
Climate change
Climate change adaptation
Adaptation pathways
Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
Coastal erosion
Hazard
Extreme weather
Meteorology. Climatology
Information system
QC851-999
Adaptation (computer science)
business
Adaptation information system
Dynamic adaptive policy pathways
Subjects
Details
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Climate Risk Management 2021, 33, 100342, UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabria, Universidad de Cantabria (UC), Climate Risk Management, Vol 33, Iss, Pp 100342-(2021)
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....45c989a50af0b213b79f452a1782a739