Prognostic Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival of Solitary Bone Plasmacytoma Patients: A Large Population-Based Study

Gong Feng,1 Wu-Bin Shu,2 A-Bing Li2 1School of Medicine, Ningbo University, Ningbo, Zhejiang, 315211, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Orthopedics, Ningbo Yinzhou Second Hospital, Ningbo, 315100, Zhejiang, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: A-Bing LiDepartment of Orthopedics, Ningbo Yinzhou Second Hospital, Ningbo, Zhejiang, 315100, People’s Republic of ChinaTel +86-15088557621Email bing19890807@hotmail.comBackground: The aim of the study was to develop a nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) of patients with solitary plasmacytoma of bone (SBP).Materials and Methods: Patients diagnosed with SBP between 1993 and 2012 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. All eligible patients were randomly allocated to the training sets and the validation sets. The nomogram was developed with the training set and validated with the validation set using the concordance index (C-index), calibration plots, and decision curve analyses (DCA).Results: Age, marital status, tumor grade, treatment were independent prognostic indicators for OS (P< 0.05) and were integrated to construct the nomogram. C-indexes for OS prediction in the training and validation sets were 0.78 and 0.73, respectively. The calibration plots demonstrated good consistency between the predicted and actual survival. DCA demonstrated that the new model has great benefits. In the total cohort, the median OS of patients in the low- and high-risk groups were 12.17 (95% CI 11.92– 12.42) and 3.92 (95% CI 2.83– 5.01) years, respectively.Conclusion: The nomogram showed excellent applicability and accuracy, which could be a reliable tool for predicting OS in SBP patients.Keywords: solitary bone plasmacytoma, cancer risk factors, SEER, nomogram