An assessment of the accuracy of surgical time estimation by orthopaedic theatre staff

Objective Optimal utilisation of theatre time increases efficiency and reduces the cost of health care. The accuracy of surgical time estimation between different members of the theatre team has not been well documented, and may aid in more efficient utilisation of available theatre time. This study aims to identify the cohort of theatre staff with greatest accuracy in estimating orthopaedic surgical time. Methods This study was conducted in a prospective fashion using consecutive orthopaedic trauma and elective operative lists over a period of 3 months. Prior to each operating list, a senior member of each of the anaesthetic, orthopaedic and scrub/scout nursing teams predicted the surgical duration for orthopaedic procedures after being provided with information regarding the individual cases. The absolute difference between estimated and actual surgical times was calculated. Results When expressed as a percentage difference from true surgical time, the orthopaedic team provided the most accurate estimates, with a mean difference of 33.0%. This was followed by nursing staff (40.5%) and anaesthetics (50.9%). Similarly, a higher proportion of estimates by the orthopaedic team were within the limits of 20% underestimation and 10% overestimation (deemed clinically significant). Conclusions Surgical times for orthopaedic trauma and elective cases are most accurately estimated by the operating team. These estimates should be implemented when planning theatre utilisation, and may benefit computer algorithms for theatre scheduling.