Polygenic risk score as a determinant of risk of non-melanoma skin cancer in a European-descent renal transplant cohort

Renal transplant recipients have an increased risk of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) compared to in the general population. Here, we show polygenic risk scores (PRS) calculated from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of NMSC in general, non-transplant setting, can predict risk of, and time to post-transplant skin cancer. Genetic variants, reaching pre-defined p-value thresholds were chosen from published squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and basal cell carcinoma (BCC) non-transplant GWAS. Using these genome-wide association studies, BCC and SCC PRS were calculated for each sample across three European-ancestry renal-transplant cohorts (n=889) and tested as predictors of case:control status and time to NMSC post-transplant. BCC PRS calculated at p-value threshold 1x10 was the most significant predictor of case:control status of NMSC post-transplant (OR=1.65; adjusted P=0.0008; AUC(full model adjusted for clinical predictors and PRS)=0.81). SCC PRS at p-value threshold 1x10 was the most significant predictor of time to post-transplant NMSC (adjusted P=8.15x10 ; HR=1.42, concordance (full model)=0.74). PRS of non-transplant NMSC is predictive of case:control status and time to NMSC post-transplant. These results are relevant to how genomics can risk stratify patients to help develop personalised treatment regimens. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.