Incidence and Progression of Fibrotic Lung Disease in an At-Risk Cohort

Relatives of patients with familial interstitial pneumonia are at increased risk for pulmonary fibrosis, and develop preclinical pulmonary fibrosis (PrePF).We defined the incidence and progression of new onset PrePF; its relationship to survival among first degree relatives of families with familial interstitial pneumonia.This is a cohort study of family members with familial interstitial pneumonia who were initially screened with a questionnaire and chest HRCT scan, and approximately 4 years later, the evaluation was repeated. 493 asymptomatic first-degree relatives of patients with familial interstitial pneumonia were evaluated at baseline, and 296 (60%) of the original subjects participated in subsequent evaluation.The median interval between HRCTs was 3.9 years (IQ range 3.5-4.4). 252 subjects who agreed to repeat evaluation were originally determined not to have PrePF at baseline; 16 developed PrePF. A conservative estimate of the annual incidence of PrePF is 1,023 per 100, 000 person years (95% CI 511-1831). Of 44 subjects with PrePF at baseline, 38.4% subjects had worsening dyspnea compared to 15.4% of those without PrePF (P=0.002). Usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) by HRCT (P0.0002) and baseline quantitative fibrosis score (P0.001) are also associated with worsening dyspnea. PrePF at the initial screen is associated with decreased survival (P0.001).The incidence of PrePF in this at-risk population is at least 100-fold higher than that reported for sporadic idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). While PrePF and IPF represent distinct entities, our study demonstrates that PrePF, like IPF, is progressive and associated with decreased survival.