Analytic Hierarchy Process based Potential Risk Zonation of COVID-19 in India

COVID-19 caused by novel coronavirus (nCoV-19) declared by WHO as a pandemic has the potential to spread very fast thereby affecting a huge population. The first COVID-19 case in India was reported on 30th January, 2020, and in next three months, the number has soared to 33,050 despite a nationwide lockdown imposed on 25th March, 2020. Various states (provinces) of the country have been affected to varying extent. In this paper, an attempt has been made to delineate the potential risk zones of COVID-19 across entire country using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographical Information System (GIS) on the basis of data released by government agencies. The resultant thematic map was classified into 6 risk zones viz. very high, high, moderate, slightly moderate, low and very low. Overall, one-third population of the country shall come under high risk zone followed by 26% in high risk zone, 10% in moderate risk zone, 29% in slightly moderate risk zone and 1% each in low and very low risk zones. Most populous/densely populated states are likely to be affected moderately or severely. The study reveals a pattern that the Central India shall witness a higher rate of COVID-19 cases whereas the Southern, extreme Northern and Northeastern states excluding Assam comparatively lower rate. The study found that three states, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh are likely to be very high risk zone owing to larger pressure of population over health facilities. Arunachal Pradesh, Goa, Mizoram, Sikkim and some other union territories are low risk zone whereas Himachal Pradesh and Andaman & Nicobar Islands fall under very low risk zone. Other states like Haryana, NCT of Delhi, Rajasthan and UT of Dadra & Nagar Haveli are likely to witness moderate risk of COVID-19 whereas Andhra Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir (undivided), Karnataka, Kerala, Manipur, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Tripura, Uttarakhand, West Bengal and UT of Lakshadweep will fall under slightly moderate risk zone. (PDF) Analytic Hierarchy Process based Potential Risk Zonation of COVID-19 in India.