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The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on public transit demand in the United States
- Source :
- PLoS ONE, PLoS ONE, Vol 15, Iss 11, p e0242476 (2020)
- Publication Year :
- 2020
-
Abstract
- The COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions led to major transit demand decline for many public transit systems in the United States. This paper is a systematic analysis of the dynamics and dimensions of this unprecedented decline. Using transit demand data derived from a widely used transit navigation app, we fit logistic functions to model the decline in daily demand and derive key parameters: base value, the apparent minimal level of demand and cliff and base points, representing the initial date when transit demand decline began and the final date when the decline rate attenuated. Regression analyses reveal that communities with higher proportions of essential workers, vulnerable populations (African American, Hispanic, Female, and people over 45 years old), and more coronavirus Google searches tend to maintain higher levels of minimal demand during COVID-19. Approximately half of the agencies experienced their decline before the local spread of COVID-19 likely began; most of these are in the US Midwest. Almost no transit systems finished their decline periods before local community spread. We also compare hourly demand profiles for each system before and during COVID-19 using ordinary Procrustes distance analysis. The results show substantial departures from typical weekday hourly demand profiles. Our results provide insights into public transit as an essential service during a pandemic.
- Subjects :
- Male
Viral Diseases
Epidemiology
Economics
Demand Curves
0211 other engineering and technologies
Macroeconomics
Social Sciences
Transportation
02 engineering and technology
Medical Conditions
Demand curve
Pandemic
Medicine and Health Sciences
Ethnicities
Transit (astronomy)
Logistic function
African American people
Hispanic People
media_common
Multidisciplinary
Geography
05 social sciences
Age Factors
021107 urban & regional planning
Middle Aged
Professions
Infectious Diseases
Public transport
Medicine
Female
Research Article
Adult
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Science
media_common.quotation_subject
Human Geography
Urban Geography
Sex Factors
0502 economics and business
Humans
Occupations
Cities
Pandemics
050210 logistics & transportation
Public Sector
business.industry
COVID-19
Covid 19
United States
Local community
Black or African American
Service (economics)
People and Places
Earth Sciences
Human Mobility
Demographic economics
Population Groupings
business
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 19326203
- Volume :
- 15
- Issue :
- 11
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- PloS one
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....36ce65635f7840051bff5fc42e38dc9d