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Precipitation projection over Daqing River Basin (North China) considering the evolution of dependence structures
- Source :
- Environmental Science and Pollution Research International
- Publication Year :
- 2021
- Publisher :
- Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2021.
-
Abstract
- Understanding dynamic future changes in precipitation can provide prior information for nonpoint source pollution simulations under global warming. However, the evolution of the dependence structure and the unevenness characteristics of precipitation are rarely considered. This study applied a two-stage bias correction to daily precipitation and max/min temperature data in the Daqing River Basin (DQRB) with the HadGEM3-RA climate model. Validated from 1981 to 2015, future scenarios under two emission paths covering 2031–2065 and 2066–2100 were projected to assess variations in both the amount and unevenness of precipitation. The results suggested that, overall, the two-stage bias correction could reproduce the marginal distributions of variables and the evolution process of the dependence structure. In the future, the amount of precipitation in the plains is expected to increase more than that in the mountains, while precipitation unevenness, as measured by relative entropy, shows a slight increase in the mountains and a decrease in the plains, with enhanced seasonality. Conditioned on rising temperatures, high-/low-intensity precipitation tends to intensify/weaken precipitation unevenness. Additionally, the potential application of the bias correction method used herein and the possible impacts of uneven precipitation on nonpoint source pollution are given for further analyses. This study can provide useful information for future nonpoint source pollution simulations in the DQRB. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11356-021-16066-9.
- Subjects :
- China
Climate Change
Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis
Drainage basin
Climate Models
Atmospheric sciences
Non-Point Source Pollution
Rivers
medicine
Precipitation unevenness
Environmental Chemistry
Bias correction
Precipitation
Projection (set theory)
Nonpoint source pollution
geography
geography.geographical_feature_category
Global warming
General Medicine
Seasonality
medicine.disease
Pollution
Partial correlation coefficient
Low-intensity precipitation
Environmental science
Climate model
Research Article
Forecasting
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 16147499 and 09441344
- Volume :
- 29
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Environmental Science and Pollution Research
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....3420f143161eb00c382a2d9e343af072