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Experts elicitation results for the assessment of weights
Experts elicitation results for the assessment of weights
- Publication Year :
- 2022
- Publisher :
- Zenodo, 2022.
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Abstract
- In this deliverable, the association between human exposure to Salmonella Enteritidis (SE) through chicken eggs and the number of human salmonellosis cases was explored. The rationale was that changes in human exposure to SE could potentially explain the levelling off of the decreasing trend of human SE cases in Europe. For the exposure assessment, a simplified approach of the pre-treatment load was used, which was calculated as the product of egg SE prevalence and egg consumption rate. Due to the limited availability of egg SE prevalence data, we also investigated the suitability of laying hen flock level SE prevalence as a proxy for egg SE prevalence. However, the correlation between the two was limited, and flock level SE prevalence was therefore not included in further analysis. Annual data on egg SE prevalence could only be obtained from Spain. Pooled sample egg SE prevalence’s from Spain were first transformed to annual egg SE prevalence’s. Next, annual egg SE prevalence was compared with the annual incidence rate of salmonellosis in Spain. We found a weak correlation between the pre-treatment SE load and the number of human SE cases, which indicates that changes in human exposure to SE through consumption of chicken eggs cannot explain the stagnating SE incidence in humans. However, several other factors could be at play that we could not take into account, such as: the obtained dataset on egg SE prevalence in Spain is not representative for the true egg SE prevalence in Spain; egg SE prevalence was measured on the shell of the egg and not for the content, which might not fully represent the true human SE exposure; humans might be exposed to SE via other transmission routes than chicken eggs. This study also looked at the importance of SE exposure from imported eggs, but that seemed to be negligible for Spain as eggs mainly originated from in-land. This study found no indication that the changing trend in human salmonellosis incidence is related to changes human exposure to SE from chicken eggs. However, data availability was limited, and analyses could only be performed for Spain, of which it is unknown whether results are generalizable to other countries. Therefore, based on results in this study, we could not fully determine whether the EU-wide reversal of the decreasing SE trend in humans could be due to changes in exposure to SE through eggs.
- Subjects :
- embryonic structures
Subjects
Details
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....3286521328bc057a5e80879adb60d46c
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6325456