Assessing the effect of abiotic variables and zooplankton on picocyanobacterial dominance in two tropical mesotrophic reservoirs by means of evolutionary computation

Evolutionary computation has been applied to predict the occurrence of massive cyanobacteria proliferations; in the present study, this tool was further used to explore the factors responsible for maintaining picocyanobacterial dominance. Aiming to increase the understanding of factors that promote dominance of picocyanobacteria in tropical reservoirs, we chose two reservoirs used for water supplies located in different regions of Brazil and subjected to climate changes such as warmer winters that intensify water column stratification and prolonged dry seasons that cause water level decreases. This study focused on the diagnosis of the relationships among picocyanobacteria (1–2 μm), zooplankton and environmental variables using evolutionary computation. The integrated data analysis performed here was very successful in elucidating the dynamics of picocyanobacterial density variation influenced by both abiotic and biotic factors by the modeling approach. Relative water column stability - RWCS and electrical conductivity were highlighted as the most important environmental drivers for picocyanobacterial peaks. Hybrid Evolutionary Analysis (HEA) models for the two reservoirs indicated for the first time in the literature that rotifers, small-sized cladocerans and copepods (mainly nauplii) can directly or indirectly control picocyanobacteria in tropical mesotrophic reservoirs, depending on RWCS conditions and electrical conductivity. However, this control is modulated by pH, water transparency and water temperature thresholds.