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Forecasting Natural Gas Consumption in the US Power Sector by a Randomly Optimized Fractional Grey System Model
- Source :
- Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Vol 2021 (2021)
- Publication Year :
- 2021
- Publisher :
- Hindawi Limited, 2021.
-
Abstract
- Natural gas is one of the main energy resources for electricity generation. Reliable forecasting is vital to make sensible policies. A randomly optimized fractional grey system model is developed in this work to forecast the natural gas consumption in the power sector of the United States. The nonhomogeneous grey model with fractional-order accumulation is introduced along with discussions between other existing grey models. A random search optimization scheme is then introduced to optimize the nonlinear parameter of the grey model. And the complete forecasting scheme is built based on the rolling mechanism. The case study is executed based on the updated data set of natural gas consumption of the power sector in the United States. The comparison of results is analyzed from different step sizes, different grey system models, and benchmark models. They all show that the proposed method has significant advantages over the other existing methods, which indicates the proposed method has high potential in short-term forecasting for natural gas consumption of the power sector in United States.
- Subjects :
- Mathematical optimization
Article Subject
Computer science
business.industry
General Mathematics
General Engineering
Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
System model
Data set
Nonlinear system
Random search
Electricity generation
Work (electrical)
Natural gas
Benchmark (surveying)
QA1-939
TA1-2040
business
Mathematics
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 15635147 and 1024123X
- Volume :
- 2021
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Mathematical Problems in Engineering
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....304e46bdb6cd5c84b19bc6e91ba583cb