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Current and future distribution of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Diptera : Culicidae) in WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region
- Source :
- International Journal of Health Geographics, International Journal of Health Geographics, 2018, 17 (1), ⟨10.1186/s12942-018-0125-0⟩, International Journal of Health Geographics, BioMed Central, 2018, 17 (1), ⟨10.1186/s12942-018-0125-0⟩, International Journal of Health Geographics, Vol 17, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2018)
- Publication Year :
- 2018
-
Abstract
- Background Aedes-borne diseases as dengue, zika, chikungunya and yellow fever are an emerging problem worldwide, being transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Lack of up to date information about the distribution of Aedes species hampers surveillance and control. Global databases have been compiled but these did not capture data in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR), and any models built using these datasets fail to identify highly suitable areas where one or both species may occur. The first objective of this study was therefore to update the existing Ae. aegypti (Linnaeus, 1762) and Ae. albopictus (Skuse, 1895) compendia and the second objective was to generate species distribution models targeted to the EMR. A final objective was to engage the WHO points of contacts within the region to provide feedback and hence validate all model outputs. Methods The Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus compendia provided by Kraemer et al. (Sci Data 2:150035, 2015; Dryad Digit Repos, 2015) were used as starting points. These datasets were extended with more recent species and disease data. In the next step, these sets were filtered using the Köppen–Geiger classification and the Mahalanobis distance. The occurrence data were supplemented with pseudo-absence data as input to Random Forests. The resulting suitability and maximum risk of establishment maps were combined into hard-classified maps per country for expert validation. Results The EMR datasets consisted of 1995 presence locations for Ae. aegypti and 2868 presence locations for Ae. albopictus. The resulting suitability maps indicated that there exist areas with high suitability and/or maximum risk of establishment for these disease vectors in contrast with previous model output. Precipitation and host availability, expressed as population density and night-time lights, were the most important variables for Ae. aegypti. Host availability was the most important predictor in case of Ae. albopictus. Internal validation was assessed geographically. External validation showed high agreement between the predicted maps and the experts’ extensive knowledge of the terrain. Conclusion Maps of distribution and maximum risk of establishment were created for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus for the WHO EMR. These region-specific maps highlighted data gaps and these gaps will be filled using targeted monitoring and surveillance. This will increase the awareness and preparedness of the different countries for Aedes borne diseases. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12942-018-0125-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
- Subjects :
- 0301 basic medicine
Species distribution
Distribution (economics)
Geographic Mapping
Distribution
medicine.disease_cause
Population density
MESH: Mosquito Vectors
MESH: Yellow Fever/diagnosis
Dengue fever
Dengue
MESH: Aedes
0302 clinical medicine
Aedes aegypti
Aedes
MESH: Animals
Chikungunya
MESH: Dengue/diagnosis
Surveillance
biology
Mediterranean Region
Aedes albopictus
Geography
[SDV.MP]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Microbiology and Parasitology
MESH: Yellow Fever/epidemiology
lcsh:R858-859.7
Yellow fever
Cartography
MESH: Forecasting
General Computer Science
030231 tropical medicine
MESH: Dengue/epidemiology
Mosquito Vectors
lcsh:Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics
World Health Organization
MESH: Mediterranean Region/epidemiology
03 medical and health sciences
Zika
MESH: World Health Organization
Species Specificity
MESH: Geographic Mapping
Yellow Fever
medicine
MESH: Species Specificity
Animals
Humans
MESH: Humans
business.industry
Research
Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
15. Life on land
medicine.disease
biology.organism_classification
General Business, Management and Accounting
Spatial model
030104 developmental biology
Culicidae
[SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie
business
MESH: Culicidae
Forecasting
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 1476072X
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- International Journal of Health Geographics, International Journal of Health Geographics, 2018, 17 (1), ⟨10.1186/s12942-018-0125-0⟩, International Journal of Health Geographics, BioMed Central, 2018, 17 (1), ⟨10.1186/s12942-018-0125-0⟩, International Journal of Health Geographics, Vol 17, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2018)
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....2f76c827cf1be0cac7b1bd4600dda312