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An individual-based network model to evaluate interventions for controlling pneumococcal transmission
- Source :
- BMC Infectious Diseases, Vol 8, Iss 1, p 83 (2008), BMC Infectious Diseases
- Publication Year :
- 2008
- Publisher :
- Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2008.
-
Abstract
- Background Streptococcus pneumoniae is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, but also a common colonizer of the upper respiratory tract. The emergence and spread of antibiotic resistant pneumococcal strains has threatened effective therapy. The long-term effects of measures aiming to limit pneumococcal spread are poorly understood. Computational modeling makes it possible to conduct virtual experiments that are impractical to perform in real life and thereby allows a more full understanding of pneumococcal epidemiology and control efforts. Methods We have developed a contact network model to evaluate the efficacy of interventions aiming to control pneumococcal transmission. Demographic data from Sweden during the mid-2000s were employed. Analyses of the model's parameters were conducted to elucidate key determinants of pneumococcal spread. Also, scenario simulations were performed to assess candidate control measures. Results The model made good predictions of previous findings where a correlation has been found between age and pneumococcal carriage. Of the parameters tested, group size in day-care centers was shown to be one of the most important factors for pneumococcal transmission. Consistent results were generated from the scenario simulations. Conclusion We recommend, based on the model predictions, that strategies to control pneumococcal disease and organism transmission should include reducing the group size in day-care centers.
- Subjects :
- Adult
medicine.medical_specialty
Pediatrics
Adolescent
Psychological intervention
Contact network
medicine.disease_cause
Models, Biological
Pneumococcal Infections
lcsh:Infectious and parasitic diseases
law.invention
Individual based
Medical microbiology
Risk Factors
law
Streptococcus pneumoniae
medicine
Humans
Computer Simulation
lcsh:RC109-216
Child
Intensive care medicine
Network model
Sweden
business.industry
Age Factors
Infant
Child Day Care Centers
Middle Aged
medicine.disease
Pneumococcal infections
Infectious Diseases
Transmission (mechanics)
Child, Preschool
Communicable Disease Control
Epidemiologic Methods
business
Research Article
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 14712334
- Volume :
- 8
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- BMC Infectious Diseases
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....2f254d7d191ab048bb5c59b6513d4f81