Spatial modeling of the ecological niche of Pinus greggii Engelm. (Pinaceae): a species conservation proposal in Mexico under climatic change scenarios

Pinus greggii is a species of socio-economic importance in terms of wood production and environmental services in Mexico, though it is restricted by particular environmental conditions to the Sierra Madre Occidental. Species distribution models are geospatial tools widely used in the identification and delineation of species’ distribution areas and zones susceptible to climate change. The objectives of this study were to: (i) model and quantify the environmentally suitable area for Pinus greggii in Mexico, and possible future distributions under four different scenarios of climate change; (ii) identify the most relevant environmental variables that will possibly drive changes in future distribution; and (iii) to propose adequate zones for the species’ conservation in Mexico. Some 438 records of Pinus greggii from several national and international databases were obtained, and duplicates were discarded to avoid overestimations in the models. Climatic, edaphic, and topographic variables were used and 100 distribution models for current and future scenarios were generated using the Maxent software. The best model had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.88 and 0.93 for model training and validation, respectively, a partial ROC of 1.94, and a significant Z test (p