Personalized machine learning approach to predict candidemia in medical wards

Candidemia is a highly lethal infection; several scores have been developed to assist the diagnosis process and recently different models have been proposed. Aim of this work was to assess predictive performance of a Random Forest (RF) algorithm for early detection of candidemia in the internal medical wards (IMWs). A set of 42 potential predictors was acquired in a sample of 295 patients (male: 142, age: 72 ± 15 years; candidemia: 157/295; bacteremia: 138/295). Using tenfold cross-validation, a RF algorithm was compared with a classic stepwise multivariable logistic regression model; discriminative performance was assessed by C-statistics, sensitivity and specificity, while calibration was evaluated by Hosmer–Lemeshow test. The best tuned RF algorithm demonstrated excellent discrimination (C-statistics = 0.874 ± 0.003, sensitivity = 84.24% ± 0.67%, specificity = 91% ± 2.63%) and calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow statistics = 12.779 ± 1.369, p = 0.120), markedly greater than the ones guaranteed by the classic stepwise logistic regression (C-statistics = 0.829 ± 0.011, sensitivity = 80.21% ± 1.67%, specificity = 84.81% ± 2.68%; Hosmer–Lemeshow statistics = 38.182 ± 15.983, p