Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Covariance Modelling and its Impact on Parameter Estimation and Quality of Fit

Friedrich, O., et al. DES Collaboration
We describe and test the fiducial covariance matrix model for the combined two-point function analysis of the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES-Y3) data set. Using a variety of new ansatzes for covariance modelling and testing, we validate the assumptions and approximations of this model. These include the assumption of Gaussian likelihood, the trispectrum contribution to the covariance, the impact of evaluating the model at a wrong set of parameters, the impact of masking and survey geometry, deviations from Poissonian shot noise, galaxy weighting schemes, and other sub-dominant effects. We find that our covariance model is robust and that its approximations have little impact on goodness of fit and parameter estimation. The largest impact on best-fitting figure-of-merit arises from the so-called fsky approximation for dealing with finite survey area, which on average increases the χ2 between maximum posterior model and measurement by 3.7 per cent (Δχ2 ≈ 18.9). Standard methods to go beyond this approximation fail for DES-Y3, but we derive an approximate scheme to deal with these features. For parameter estimation, our ignorance of the exact parameters at which to evaluate our covariance model causes the dominant effect. We find that it increases the scatter of maximum posterior values for Ωm and σ8 by about 3 per cent and for the dark energy equation-of-state parameter by about 5 per cent⁠.
The DES data management system is supported by the National Science Foundation under grant numbers AST-1138766 and AST-1536171. The DES participants from Spanish institutions are partially supported by MINECO under grants AYA2015-71825, ESP2015-66861, FPA2015-68048, SEV-2016-0588, SEV-2016-0597, and MDM-2015-0509, some of which include ERDF funds from the European Union. IFAE is partially funded by the CERCA program of the Generalitat de Catalunya. Research leading to these results has received funding from the European Research Council under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Program (FP7/2007-2013) including ERC grant agreements 240672, 291329, and 306478. We acknowledge support from the Brazilian Instituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia (INCT) e-Universe (CNPq grant 465376/2014-2). This manuscript has been authored by Fermi Research Alliance, LLC under Contract No. DE-AC02-07CH11359 with the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of High Energy Physics.