La hidropolítica y las relaciones exteriores de China en el complejo hídrico del Himalaya; los casos de Nepal e India

Asia’s ten main river systems originate in the Himalayas, most of them in the enormous Tibetan plateau, the Roof of the World, which holds a unique geostrategic importance in the world and controlled by China. This country is one of the countries with most transboundary rivers in the world, second only to Russia and Argentina. The Asian water tower holds a position that gives it enormous power and influence, and the possible decisions Pekin can make regarding its hydraulic relations with the rest of the countries transcend the Himalayas and have a regional, continental and possibly global scope. The management of its 16 transboundary rivers can affect the availability of water in many downstream countries, directly affecting access to water resources in 14 countries on the Asian continent and almost three billion people, that is, almost half of the world population This article aims at analysing the Chinese hydraulic behavior in the Himalayan complex, based on two case studies: Nepal, and India. The present piece of work contributes to the debate, on the one hand, on the explanatory factors of the Chinese water behavior, both domestically and internationally. On the other, to the academic debate on the Chinese strategy in relation to one of the most valued resources on the planet, water. China has embarked upon 90,000 projects on hydraulic infrastructure, including dams, dikes, water diversion projects, river basin and river water transfers. These megaprojects affect both internal rivers —which suffer from scarcity and drought more seriously, such as the Yellow river or the Yangtze—, as well as international transboundary rivers, which immediately poses a threat to the countries with which it shares these rivers —such as the Brahmaputra. The Himalayas represent a strategic enclave of extraordinary significance in the international system, but it remains unknown and under studied in Spain, especially the case of Tibet, the Himalayas, and Sino-Indian relations. The theoretical framework guiding this research comes from hydropolitics, coined from the first time in 1979 by Waterbury and that holds significant explanatory power for the present work. The analysis uses hydropolitics as the systematic investigation of the interaction between riparian states, non-state actors and other participants in relation to the authorized allocation and / or use of national and international water resources. Hydro-politics is also related to the capacity of geopolitical institutions to manage shared water resources in a politically sustainable way. Two main concepts related to hydropolitics frame the research. On the one hand, hydrohegemony, understood as the preponderance position of a country within a given water complex. On the other, that of hydrodomination, highlighting the behavior of a country trying to impose its dominion. Both concepts are notably intertwined but do not mean, or imply, the same, and both will illuminate the findings of the study of China’ water policy in the Himalayas. The text is structured as follows. First, it sets the rationale of the paper, laying out the main objectives of the paper, the relevance of the topic under scrutiny and the appropriateness of the selected case studies. The second chapter bears the theoretical part of the piece of work and contains two main aspects. First, it depicts water as a geopolitical problem and outlines why water is a geopolitical asset. Second, it explores hydropolitics as the main explanatory approach and the two main concepts therein, hydrohegemony and hydrodomination. The main empirical part of the paper is found in the third chapter. This chapter unfolds by presenting the Himalayas and underlines its strategic standpoint, namely as a key hydrological complex. It then analyses two meaningful case studies, that help address to the two main questions posed by the paper. Sketching out China’ hydropower in Tibet as the main domestic factor, as the Tibetan plateau is the main source of hydrological power to China, the paper focuses on China’s projects in Nepal as the first case under the prism of the study, as China is bouncing back to this country and is increasingly stepping in this territory through several water-related projects. Then, the paper draws its attention to Sino-Indian relations and, concretely, to the relations over the Sikkim region and regarding the Chinese projects in the Brahmaputra. The paper outlines some findings of the analysis of the case studies. The paper states that China takes advantage of its hydrohegemony and of the current international context to impose its preferences over water relations and to pursue a unilateral, assertive, aggressive hydropolicy. China’ water context cannot be neglected, but the crisis of multilateralism and lingering geopolitical disputes in the wider Himalayan region are external factors that shape Chinese behaviour. A second finding is related to geography, as geographical considerations always matter. China’s control over the Tibetan plateau and its transboundary water character provide this country with a position which allows this country to exert some hegemony and domination vis-a-vis its riparian neighbours. This is not merely a geographical reality, but a geopolitical imperative that China always uses as a trump card. Third, China’s hydropolicy in Nepal and India seems to indicate a huge degree of continuity in Mao’s the bigger, the better policy. Pekin keeps its political strategy to become the world’s leading superpower, and this needs naturally enormous infrastructure projects, massive investments, and a global quest for natural resources. Some of the concrete projects presented, such as the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, are remarkable in that sense. The final conclusions and considerations close this article. The paper zooms out and refers to the relevance of the Himalayas, with the special case of the Tibetan plateau, to Chinese behaviour and to hydropolitics. It also proposes some topics and theoretical approaches for future research. The main argument of the article is that Chinese water policy in the Himalayas should be conceived as one more step in China's attempt to consolidate its political and strategic presence in different parts of the world. Chinese relations must be analyzed in the context of its foreign policy over the last decade, marked by its expansionism, its crystallization as a great world power and the fostering of mega projects and initiatives on a global scale. In short, maybe the most hydropolitical imperative of China is Why should I cooperate if I can dominate?