Unexpected large eruptions from buoyant magma bodies within viscoelastic crust

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Large volume effusive eruptions with relatively minor observed precursory signals are at odds with widely used models to interpret volcano deformation. Here we propose a new modelling framework that resolves this discrepancy by accounting for magma buoyancy, viscoelastic crustal properties, and sustained magma channels. At low magma accumulation rates, the stability of deep magma bodies is governed by the magma-host rock density contrast and the magma body thickness. During eruptions, inelastic processes including magma mush erosion and thermal effects, can form a sustained channel that supports magma flow, driven by the pressure difference between the magma body and surface vents. At failure onset, it may be difficult to forecast the final eruption volume; pressure in a magma body may drop well below the lithostatic load, create under-pressure and initiate a caldera collapse, despite only modest precursors.
The research presented here has benefitted from extended visits of FS during a sabbatical term to, and discussion with scientists at, the University of Leeds, ISTerre University of Savoie Mont-Blanc, USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory, and Geological Survey of Japan. We acknowledge reviews by Philip Benson and Luca Caricchi that helped to significantly improve the paper, as well as reviews of an early version of the paper by two anonymous reviewers. Financial support from the H2020 project EUROVOLC funded by the European Commission is acknowledged (grant number 731070). F.S. acknowledges support from the University of Iceland Research Fund, and R.G. acknowledges partial support through NSF grant EAR-1464546. Fissure swarms, central volcanoes and caldera outlines shown in Fig. 1 are reproduced from publications referred to (refs. 42,76) with permissions from Elsevier, and we acknowledge the use of ArticDEM (ref. 77) to plot surface and ice topography shown in Fig. 1. COMET is the NERC Centre for the Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Tectonics, a partnership between UK Universities and the British Geological Survey.