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Early cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-based selection strategies for adjuvant treatment in stage II colon cancer:The potential value of prognostic molecular markers
- Source :
- Jongeneel, G, Greuter, M J E, Kunst, N, Van Erning, F N, Koopman, M, Medema, J P, Vermeulen, L, Ijzermans, J N M, Vink, G R, Punt, C J A & Coupé, V M H 2021, ' Early cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-based selection strategies for adjuvant treatment in stage II colon cancer : The potential value of prognostic molecular markers ', Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers and Prevention, vol. 30, no. 9, pp. 1726-1734 . https://doi.org/10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-21-0078, Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers and Prevention, 30(9), 1726-1734. American Association for Cancer Research Inc., Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev, Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers and Prevention, 30(9), 1726-1734
- Publication Year :
- 2021
-
Abstract
- Background: To explore the potential value of consensus molecular subtypes (CMS) in stage II colon cancer treatment selection, we carried out an early cost-effectiveness assessment of a CMS-based strategy for adjuvant chemotherapy. Methods: We used a Markov cohort model to evaluate three selection strategies: (i) the Dutch guideline strategy (MSS+pT4), (ii) the mutation-based strategy (MSS plus a BRAF and/or KRAS mutation or MSS plus pT4), and (iii) the CMS-based strategy (CMS4 or pT4). Outcomes were number of colon cancer deaths per 1,000 patients, total discounted costs per patient (pp), and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) pp. The analyses were conducted from a Dutch societal perspective. The robustness of model predictions was assessed in sensitivity analyses. To evaluate the value of future research, we performed a value of information (VOI) analysis. Results: The Dutch guideline strategy resulted in 8.10 QALYs pp and total costs of €23,660 pp. The CMS-based and mutation-based strategies were more effective and more costly, with 8.12 and 8.13 QALYs pp and €24,643 and €24,542 pp, respectively. Assuming a threshold of €50,000/QALY, the mutation-based strategy was considered as the optimal strategy in an incremental analysis. However, the VOI analysis showed substantial decision uncertainty driven by the molecular markers (expected value of partial perfect information: €18M). Conclusions: On the basis of current evidence, our analyses suggest that the mutation-based selection strategy would be the best use of resources. However, the extensive decision uncertainty for the molecular markers does not allow selection of an optimal strategy at present. Impact: Future research is needed to eliminate decision uncertainty driven by molecular markers.
- Subjects :
- Oncology
medicine.medical_specialty
Epidemiology
Colorectal cancer
Cost-Benefit Analysis
MEDLINE
Risk Assessment
Article
Value of information
SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
Internal medicine
medicine
Humans
Selection (genetic algorithm)
Neoplasm Staging
Netherlands
business.industry
Cohort model
Cost-effectiveness analysis
Guideline
medicine.disease
Markov Chains
Chemotherapy, Adjuvant
Mutation (genetic algorithm)
Colonic Neoplasms
Quality-Adjusted Life Years
business
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 10559965
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Jongeneel, G, Greuter, M J E, Kunst, N, Van Erning, F N, Koopman, M, Medema, J P, Vermeulen, L, Ijzermans, J N M, Vink, G R, Punt, C J A & Coupé, V M H 2021, ' Early cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-based selection strategies for adjuvant treatment in stage II colon cancer : The potential value of prognostic molecular markers ', Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers and Prevention, vol. 30, no. 9, pp. 1726-1734 . https://doi.org/10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-21-0078, Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers and Prevention, 30(9), 1726-1734. American Association for Cancer Research Inc., Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev, Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers and Prevention, 30(9), 1726-1734
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....291430f09591738742cfd1e86e2bf290
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-21-0078