LaVegMod v2: Modeling Coastal Vegetation Dynamics in Response to Proposed Coastal Restoration and Protection Projects in Louisiana, USA

We have developed a computer model of plant community dynamics for Louisiana’s coastal wetland ecosystems. The model was improved as a part of the Louisiana Coastal Master Plan of 2017 and is one of several linked models used to evaluate the potential effects of climate change and sea levels rise as well as the potential effects of alternative approaches to managing the region’s natural resources to mitigate the effects of sea level rise. The model we describe here incorporates a number of improvements over the previous version of the model developed for the 2012 Master Plan, including an expansion of the number of species and habitat types represented, the inclusion of bottomland forests and barrier islands, and the incorporation of additional ecological processes such as dispersal. Here, we present results from the model used to evaluate large scale ecosystem restoration projects, as well as three alternative management scenarios to illustrate the utility of the model and the ability of current management plans to address the threats that sea level rise pose to Louisiana’s coastal wetland ecosystems.