Likelihood analysis of the next-to-minimal supergravity motivated model

In anticipation of data from the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) and the potential discovery of supersymmetry, in this work we seek an answer to the following: What are the chances that supersymmetry will be found at the LHC? Will the LHC data be enough to discover a given supersymmetric model? And what other measurements can assist the LHC establish the presence of supersymmetry? As a step toward answering these general questions, we calculate the odds of the next-to-minimal version of the popular supergravity motivated model (NmSuGra) being discovered at the LHC to be 4:3 (57 %). We also demonstrate that viable regions of the NmSuGra parameter space outside the LHC reach can be covered by upgraded versions of dark matter direct detection experiments, such as super-CDMS, at 99 % confidence level. Due to the similarities of the models, we expect very similar results for the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model (CMSSM).
Comment: 21 pages, 7 figures