Little Risk of the COVID-19 Resurgence on Students in China (outside Hubei) Caused by School Reopening

ObjectiveSchool reopening has not yet started in China where the COVID-19 outbreak has reached ending stage, largely due to a great concern about COVID-19 infections on students. We attempted to quantitatively evaluate the risk of COVID-19 infections on students caused by school reopening.Study designWe collected the data of the numbers of teachers, population size and newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the past 14 days in typical provinces/cities of China, and then analyzed the risk of COVID-19 infections in schools with respect to each province/city.MethodsA step-by-step procedure was explored to calculate the probability of COVID-19 infections on students as transmitted from infected teachers. Two critical assumptions for analysis were proposed: (i) only locally generated cases were counted while imported cases were omitted; (ii) the secondary attack rate of the COVID-19 virus in schools is similar to that in households in China, ranging from 3-10%.ResultsThe probability of COVID-19 resurgence within one week on students of primary, middle and high schools in China (outside Hubei) is extremely low (ConclusionsOur work provides guidance for local governments to make risk level-based policies for school reopening. Currently, the risk of COVID-19 infections on students is extremely low in China (outside Hubei) and therefore school reopening can be initiated without the endanger of infections on students.