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A Bayesian spatio-temporal model for forecasting Anaplasma species seroprevalence in domestic dogs within the contiguous United States
- Source :
- PLoS ONE, Vol 12, Iss 7, p e0182028 (2017), PLoS ONE
- Publication Year :
- 2017
- Publisher :
- Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2017.
-
Abstract
- This paper forecasts the 2016 canine Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence in the United States from eight climate, geographic and societal factors. The forecast’s construction and an assessment of its performance are described. The forecast is based on a spatial-temporal conditional autoregressive model fitted to over 11 million Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence test results for dogs conducted in the 48 contiguous United States during 2011–2015. The forecast uses county-level data on eight predictive factors, including annual temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, county elevation, forestation coverage, surface water coverage, population density and median household income. Non-static factors are extrapolated into the forthcoming year with various statistical methods. The fitted model and factor extrapolations are used to estimate next year’s regional prevalence. The correlation between the observed and model-estimated county-by-county Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence for the five-year period 2011–2015 is 0.902, demonstrating reasonable model accuracy. The weighted correlation (accounting for different sample sizes) between 2015 observed and forecasted county-by-county Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence is 0.987, exhibiting that the proposed approach can be used to accurately forecast Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence. The forecast presented herein can a priori alert veterinarians to areas expected to see Anaplasma spp. seroprevalence beyond the accepted endemic range. The proposed methods may prove useful for forecasting other diseases.
- Subjects :
- Veterinary medicine
Anaplasmosis
Range (biology)
Climate
Prevalence
Rickettsiales
lcsh:Medicine
Pathology and Laboratory Medicine
Population density
Geographical locations
0403 veterinary science
0302 clinical medicine
Mathematical and Statistical Techniques
Seroepidemiologic Studies
Statistics
Medicine and Health Sciences
Dog Diseases
lcsh:Science
Mammals
Multidisciplinary
biology
04 agricultural and veterinary sciences
Antibodies, Bacterial
Bacterial Pathogens
Geography
Veterinary Diseases
Medical Microbiology
Vertebrates
Physical Sciences
Pathogens
Statistics (Mathematics)
Research Article
Anaplasma
Arthropoda
040301 veterinary sciences
030231 tropical medicine
Research and Analysis Methods
Microbiology
03 medical and health sciences
Dogs
Population Metrics
Arachnida
Parasitic Diseases
Seroprevalence
Animals
Statistical Methods
Microbial Pathogens
Population Density
Bacteria
Population Biology
Ixodes
lcsh:R
Organisms
Biology and Life Sciences
Bayes Theorem
biology.organism_classification
Invertebrates
United States
Sample size determination
Amniotes
North America
Household income
Veterinary Science
lcsh:Q
People and places
Mathematics
Forecasting
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 19326203
- Volume :
- 12
- Issue :
- 7
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- PLoS ONE
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....2496ccc89e7da06926e78032d833c810