Prognostic index for chronic- and smoldering-type adult T-cell leukemia-lymphoma

Adult T-cell leukemia-lymphoma (ATL) has been divided into 4 clinical subtypes: acute, lymphoma, chronic, and smoldering. The aim of this study is to develop a novel prognostic index (PI) for chronic and smoldering ATL. We conducted a nationwide retrospective survey on ATL patients, and 248 fully eligible individuals were used in this analysis. In the univariate analysis, sex, performance status, log10 (soluble interleukin-2 receptor [sIL-2R]), neutrophils count, and lymphadenopathy showed values of P < .05 in training samples. A multivariate analysis was performed on these factors, and only log10 (sIL-2R) was identified as an independent prognostic factor in training samples. Using a regression coefficient of this variable, a prognostic model was formulated to identify different levels of risk: indolent ATL-PI (iATL-PI) = 1.51 × log10 (sIL-2R [U/mL]). The values calculated by iATL-PI were divided into 3 groups using a quartile point. In the validation sample, median survival times (MSTs) were 1.6 years, 5.5 years, and not reached for patients in the high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups, respectively (P < .0001). To make the scoring system clinically practicable, we simplified iATL-PI according to trichotomizing sIL-2R at 1000 and 6000 U/mL, using a quartile point. Patients with more than 6000 U/mL sIL-2R were categorized into the high-risk group, less than and equal to 1000 U/mL into the low-risk group, and the others into the intermediate-risk group, and MSTs were 1.6 years, not reached, and 5.5 years, respectively (P < .0001). iATL-PI has potential as a novel tool for a risk-adapted therapeutic approach.